Mainichi Shinbun News 08/30 ＜Special; Science and Technology＞A
univeristy of U.S. listed top 10 of next
decade (and next century)
The details are shown on web-site of George
Washigton University.
http://gwforecast.gwu.edu/index.asp
Prof. Halal of GW university published a
top ten breakthrough for the next century,
based on the survey of related professionals.
Main breakthroughs are related to computer
technologies, and IT revolution will be proceeded.
(comment; more interesting data is the top
ten breakthrough for the next century, which
was not listed on the Mainichi news, but
here the ten is attached, K. TAKAHASHI)
The GW Forecast (http://gwforecast.gwu.edu/index.asp)
Breakthrough, Date, Confidence Level
Top Ten Breakthrough for the Next Century
"Maglev" trains connect major cities 2012 +/- 5 years
Children can be genetically desighed 2012 +/- 5 years
Optical computers are developed 2015 +/- 5 years
Automated, intelligent highways are developed
2015 +/- 5 years
A base on the Moon is established 2015 +/- years
Cloned/artificial organs can replace most
body parts 2020 +/- years
Human land on Mars 2022 +/- 5 years
Genetic therapy can cure most illnesses 2025 +/- 5 years
Average human life span reaches 100 years
2030 +/- 3 years
Human travel to nearby star system 2050 +/- 10 years
Mainichi Shinbun News 08/30 ＜Special; Science and Technology＞A
univeristy of U.S. listed top 10 of next
decade
(1)Portable information devices accessing
all media are common 2003 +/- 2 years
Mobile device will be in wide use, capable
of watching TV. Mobile device will be a key
player as a post-personnel computer.
（２）Fuel-cell cars enter the market 2005 +/- 3 years
Instead of gasolin cars, fuel-cell cars
will come into wide use. Toyota and Ford
will sell fuel-cell car arounf year 2003
and 2004.
（３）Precision farming is common 2005 +/- 3 years
Tractors with receiver from satelite will
be used. Computer on tractor will regulate
planting, watering, and chemical spraying.
Agricultural business becomes on a more larger
scale.
（４）Mass customization of cheap, high quality
goods is common 2007 +/- 3 years
In year 2007, about 30% of total sale will
be done by online shopping in US.
（５）"Teleliving" --interactive wall
monitors are used for work, shopping, etc 2008 +/- 3 years
Teleliving is a new word, with combination
of "Telecomunication" and "Living".
Many jobs will be done at the living room
with use of the Internet.
（６）"Virtual" electronic assistants
help people conduct their work 2008 +/- 3 years
The helper (virtual assistant) who will aid
busy people will be in practical use after
10 years. VA will have artificial intelligence,
and deputize the sending of mail or receiving
of telephone call.
（７）Genetically modified foods gain wide acceptance
2008 +/-5 years
GM foods are surronded in the hostile feeling
of anti GM people, but will be accepted gradually.
For the vitamin-A deficient people of under
developed county, rice plant with affluent
vitamin-A will be developed.
（８）Computerized health care is available 2009 +/- 4 years
Medical area, which has been said as the
most backworld industry for introducing computer,
will be improved. The data of patient from
the birth will be used for medical treatment.
（９）Alternate energy sources are widely used 2009 +/- 4 years
Alternative energy, such as wind-power, sunshine
and biomass will produce 30% of total energy
output after 10 years. The price of oil will
increase to the comparable level of alternative
energy, because of strong demand increase
in China and India.
（１０）Smart mobile robots used in homes and factories
2010 +/-5 years
Robot "Aibo" of Sony can play and
learn. After 10 years, smart robot will appear
to do housework, and to take care handicapped
people.
The GW Forecast (http://gwforecast.gwu.edu/index.asp)
January 1, 2000 (Prof. William E. Halal)
Top Ten Breakthroughs for the Next Decade
Breakthrough, Date, Confidence Level
Portable information devices accessing all
media are common 2003 +/- 2 years
Fuel-cell cars enter the market 2005 +/- 3 years
Precision farming is common 2005 +/- 3 years
Mass customization of cheap, high quality
goods is common 2007 +/- 3 years
"Teleliving" --interactive wall
monitors are used for work, shopping, etc 2008 +/- 3 years
"Virtual" electronic assistants
help people conduct their work 2008 +/- 3 years
Genetically modified foods gain wide acceptance
2008 +/-5 years
Computerized health care is available 2009 +/- 4 years
Alternate energy sources are widely used 2009 +/- 4 years
Smart mobile robots used in homes and factories
2010 +/-5 years